Fed deve elevar juros pela 3ª vez no ano nesta quarta | Economia




Fed deve elevar juros pela 3ª vez no ano nesta quarta | Economia

A decisão será anunciada a partir das 15h (horário de Brasília). A expectativa é de elevação da taxa de juros, do intervalo entre 1,75% para 2% para a faixa entre 2% e 2,25% ao ano.

A reunião de dois dias que termina nesta quarta-feira pode marcar o final formal do nível “expansionista” dos juros que o Fed tem usado para sustentar a economia dos EUA desde o início da recessão de 2007-2009, destaca a agência Reuters.

O atual comunicado de política monetária do Fed tem incluído essa descrição de política monetária frouxa como um elemento básico nos últimos anos, embora autoridades a tenham descrito recentemente como ultrapassada e que provavelmente será removida, esta semana ou num futuro próximo.

A probabilidade de o Fed elevar sua taxa básica de juros em 0,25 ponto percentual nesta quarta-feira, é de quase 95%, com base em análises de contratos de juros futuros pelo CME Group.

A maior questão é se o Fed irá remodelar sua perspectiva de política monetária para os próximos anos para levar em conta um crescimento mais forte do PIB ou se preocupações com uma possível guerra comercial global ou desaceleração econômica o levam a permanecer próximo de sua visão atual.

Alguns economistas esperam uma inclinação mais agressiva, seja no comunicado de política monetária, seja nas projeções econômicas e de juros ou na conferência à imprensa que o chair do Fed, Jerome Powell, dará em seguida.



No Brasil, o mercado monitora pistas sobre o rumo dos juros nos Estados Unidos porque, com taxas mais altas, o país se tornaria mais atraente para investimentos aplicados hoje em outras praças financeiras, como a brasileira.

Os títulos do Tesouro americano, atrelados à taxa de juros norte-americana, são considerados o investimento mais seguro do mundo. Se confirmado, esse fluxo de capital pode levar a uma tendência de alta do dólar em relação a moedas emergentes como o real.

A decisão de investimentos depende, entretanto, do apetite de risco dos investidores. Os mais conservadores tendem a procurar economias mais seguras para alocar seu capital, mesmo que paguem juros mais baixos. Em 2008, por exemplo, durante a crise do subprime nos Estados Unidos, a demanda por títulos do Tesouro americano cresceu.

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